If the tourist activity is paralyzed until the end of the year
The Alliance for Tourism Excellence Exceltur warns that, if the scenario of progressive de-escalation of the sector is confirmed until the end of the year due to the coronavirus crisis, this could have an impact of 124.150 million euros on the activity of the sector in 2020 , which supposes a fall of 81.4% on the total of the activity of the previous year.
And that would not only affect the tourism industry, since, in turn, it would mean, in absolute values, a greater drop in Spanish GDP than that recently forecast by the IMF, for the total of the Spanish economy in 2020.
The tourist association has monitored in recent days the impact of the stoppage of the activity and has verified that the forecasts are worsening in an accelerated way in the seven autonomous communities analyzed, in relation to the central scenario that it had foreseen until last March 30 .
For this reason Exceltur has revised upwards the losses that the national tourism sector could register this year, taking into account the postponement in the possible start-up times of tourist activities, the lack of «known, precise and agreed upon» protocols, as well as an application schedule in time.
Added to all this is a complex macroeconomic scenario in Europe with most of the markets affected by the coronavirus crisis, the psychological effect of greater security in nearby environments, as well as the reduction in disposable income for vacation spending and the increase of unemployment.
All this would lead to a first forecast that tourism GDP would fall by the end of 2020 by 92,556 million euros, which would mean a decrease of 60.7% of total direct and indirect tourism activity estimated for 2019.
But in the event that the worst forecasts are met as announced by the ministries of Consumer Affairs, Labor and Finance last Friday, which do not foresee a de-escalation of tourism before the end of the year, Exceltur estimates that the forecasts could be even worse.
Demand may not begin to recover until the end of the year and no economic activity will be generated. In addition, the level of tourist activity in the summer, if any, will be closely linked to small proximity trips in Spain and full of restrictions, in private or small accommodation facilities to avoid crowds and risks of contagion.
CATALONIA, THE MOST AFFECTED
With all this, Exceltur increases the impact on tourist activity of the coronavirus to nearly 125,000 million euros, being Catalonia one of the most affected communities with losses in tourist activity compared to 2019 in the area of 25,218 million euros.
They are followed by Andalusia (20,888 million), Madrid (15,442 million), the Balearic Islands (13,520 million, 95.2% of its 2019 tourist activity), the Valencian Community (13,450 million), the Canary Islands (12,645 million) and Galicia (5,685 million) . In the rest of the communities, a loss of activity of some 22,611 million euros is estimated.
For all these reasons, Exceltur calls for an emergency rescue plan much higher than the current one with more specific measures to support the sector with the aim of saving a good part of the business tourism fabric as well as employment.